Top 5 Events: May Canada Inflation Report & CADJPY Price Forecast

Canada Inflation Talking Points:

加拿大通货膨胀谈话要点：

• The May Canada inflation report (consumer price index) is due on Wednesday, June 19 at 12:30 GMT.

  5月加拿大通胀报告（消费者物价指数）是将于6月19日星期三格林威治标准时间12:30公布。

• The pullback in oil prices in recent weeks appears ready to put a cap on the rebound in Canada inflation.

  最近几周油价回落似乎已准备好为上涨的反弹做好准备。加拿大通胀。

• Retail tradersare net-long USDJPY and net-short USDCAD, suggesting that the Japanese Yen will rally and the Canadian Dollar will fall in the coming days.

  零售交易商为净多头美元兑日元和净空头美元兑加元，暗示日元将反弹，加元将下跌未来几天。

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

周一美国东部夏令时间7:30 /格林尼治标准时间11:30加入我的FX周前活动网络研讨会，我们将讨论未来几天的顶级事件风险以及围绕下列事件进行外汇市场交易的策略。

06/19 WEDNESDAY | 12:30 GMT | CAD Consumer Price Index (MAY)

06/19 WEDNESDAY | 12:30 GMT |加元消费者价格指数（5月）

The pullback in oil prices in recent weeks appears ready to put a cap on the rebound in Canada inflation – no different than whats being experienced across the rest of the developed economic world. Crude oil prices plunged by -15.9% in May, weighing significantly on the yearly performance: at their peak, crude oil prices were up by 46.7% in 2019; at the time of writing, they were only up by 16.2% in 2019.

最近几周油价的回落似乎已准备好限制加拿大通胀的反弹 - 与其他几个国家的经历没有什么不同发达的经济世界。 5月原油价格暴跌-15.9％，对年度表现造成重大影响：在最高点，2019年原油价格上涨46.7％;在撰写本文时，他们在2019年仅增长了16.2％。

Accordingly, a Bloomberg News survey shows consensus forecasts pointing to headline May Canada inflation duein at 2%(y/y), unchanged from Aprils pace of price pressures.The monthly reading is due in at 0.1% from 0.4% (m/m), clearer evidence disinflation is starting to appear.

因此，彭博新闻调查显示，市场普遍预期5月份加拿大通胀预期为2％（y / y），与Aprils价格压力的步伐没有变化。月度读数从0.4％（m / m）到0.1％，更明确的证据表明通货膨胀开始出现。

It still holds that improvement in energy markets will help the Canadian Dollar and inflation rebound hand-in-hand. As such, traders should keep expectations low for a policy change from the Bank of Canada any time soon; expectations have moved lower in recent months. On June 14, overnight index swaps were pricing in only a 1.5% chance of a 25-bps rate cut by July; three months earlier, on March 14, odds of a July rate cut were 13%.

它仍然认为，能源市场的改善将有助于加元和通胀同步反弹。因此，交易商应该很快就会对加拿大银行的政策变化保持较低的预期;最近几个月的预期有所下降。 6月14日，隔夜指数掉期价格在7月份降息25个基点的可能性仅为1.5％;三个月前，即3月14日，7月降息的可能性为13％。

Pairs to Watch: EURCAD, CADJPY, USDCAD

需要关注的对象：EURCAD，CADJPY，USDCAD

CADJPY Technical Forecast: Daily Price Chart (July 2018 to June 2019) (Chart 1)

CADJPY技术预测每日价格图表（2018年7月至2019年6月）（图1）

After rebounding at the start of June, CADJPY prices appear to be ready to turn lower anew. Trading in a downtrend since peaking in April, CADJPY tried earlier this week to break the series of lower highs and lower lows. The failed bullish breakout attempt now puts focus on a return lower in the channel, now that CADJPY prices have fallen back below their daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope as well. First support comes in play near the June 6 bullish outside engulfing bar low at 80.53, then the June low at 79.97. Only a move back above the EMA envelope as well as the downtrend from the April high will warrant a reconsideration of the bearish bias for CADJPY prices.

在6月初反弹后，CADJPY价格似乎是准备好再次降低。自4月份达到顶峰以来，下半年一直处于下行趋势中，加元兑日元本周早些时候试图打破一系列较低的高点和较低的低点。由于CADJPY价格已回落至低于其每日8,13和21-EMA的信封，因此失败的看涨突破尝试现在将注意力集中在该通道的回报较低位置。 6月6日看涨外围吞吐低点80.53附近，然后是6月低点79.97。只有回到EMA上方以及4月高点的下行趋势才能重新考虑CADJPY价格的看跌偏见。

IG Client Sentiment Index: USDCAD (June 14, 2019) (Chart 2)

IG客户情绪指数：美元兑加元（6月） 14,2019）（图2）

USDCAD: Retail trader data shows 40.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.45 to 1. The percentage of traders net-long is now its lowest since June 5 when USDCAD traded near 1.34219. The number of traders net-long is 12.8% lower than yesterday and 21.7% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.7% higher than yesterday and 7.8% higher from last week.

USDCAD：零售交易者数据显示，40.8％的交易者是净持有者，其比例为交易者做多做多至1.45比1.交易者净多头的百分比现在是6月5日美元兑加元交易于1.34219附近以来的最低点。交易商净多头比昨天减少12.8％，比上周减少21.7％，而交易商净空头数比昨天增加8.7％，比上周增加7.8％。

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDCAD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDCAD-bullish contrarian trading bias.

我们通常采取逆向观点来观察市场情绪，而交易商净空头表明美元兑加元价格可能继续上涨。交易商进一步净空至昨日和上周，当前情绪和近期变化的结合使我们看好美元兑加元看涨的逆势交易偏见。