KVB Market Analysis | 30 August: JPY Strengthens Against USD Amid Strong Q2 GDP and BoJ Rate Hike Speculation
The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, boosted by stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth in Japan, raising hopes for a BoJ rate hike. Despite this, the USD/JPY pair found support from higher US Treasury yields, though gains may be capped by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.
NFP Hammers Dollar to 4 Months Low
The aftermath of the Japanese yen's strengthening has manifested in significant dips across multiple markets, including equities, commodities, and various currencies. The yen has erased all its 2024 losses against the dollar, moving towards the 145.00 mark. The dollar index (DXY) has fallen to its lowest level since March, hovering above the $103 mark.
KVB Today's Analysis: Gold Bullion Gains Strength Amid Fed's Dovish Stance on Interest Rates
Fed officials have indicated they are prepared to cut interest rates if necessary, though there is no immediate need. This dovish stance has been viewed positively by the markets, leading to increased buying pressure on gold. Despite ongoing inflationary risks, market expectations of a rate cut in June have risen to 66.3% (up 3% since the PCE release). Lower interest rates could enhance the appeal of non-yielding gold.
Yen Resurgence! Will Next BoJ Week Sustain the Rally?
The U.S. Conference Board reported a slight decline in the US Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for June 2024, dropping to 100.4 from 101.3 in May. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) opted to keep its key short-term interest rate steady at 0.10% for June 2024, in line with market expectations. At its June 2024 meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.50%. In June 2024, the Bank of England (BoE) decided to keep the interest rate at 5.25% unchanged. This decision...
Dollar Dip on Dovish Fed’s Beige Book
The dollar continues to tumble, trading at its lowest level since April, below the $104 mark. The U.S. Beige Book suggests economic growth has moderated and inflation shows signs of easing, strengthening the likelihood of a September rate cut. Improved risk appetite in the market propelled the Dow Jones up nearly 300 points in the last session, breaking its all-time high.
Japanese Yen Outlook: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY
The yen weakens further as Fed Chair Powell's cautious remarks influence market sentiment. USD/JPY remains around 161, with resistance at 162, driven by Powell's comments and upcoming US CPI data. June's lower-than-expected PPI in Japan adds pressure on the yen. The sentiment is bullish for USD/JPY, supported by strong US economic indicators. Key influences include Federal Reserve signals, US economic data, and Japan's PPI. Potential movement for USD/JPY could see it testing 162 resistance.
Global Market Insights: Key Events and Economic Analysis Part 2
This week's global market analysis covers significant movements and events. Fed Chairman Powell's cautious stance on interest rates impacts the USD. TSMC benefits from Samsung's strike. Geopolitical tensions rise with Putin's diplomacy. PBOC plans bond sales to stabilize CNY. Key economic events include Core CPI, PPI, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment for the USA, and GDP data for the UK. These factors influence currency movements and market sentiment globally.
Dollar Gains on Hawkish Fed Outlook
After digesting Jerome Powell's comments following the FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday, the dollar erased all its losses from the soft CPI reading, continuing its upward trajectory. The hawkish outlook from the Fed stimulated dollar strength against its peers, while the bullish momentum in equity markets was hindered by the prospect of prolonged high interest rates.
Dollar Calm ahead of FOMC Minutes
The dollar index steadied in the last session, trading above the $105 mark, ahead of the highly anticipated FOMC meeting minutes. Market expectations are leaning towards a more hawkish stance from the U.S. central bank due to a tight labour market. Analysts predict that the Fed is likely to implement two 25 bps rate cuts toward the end of the year, contingent on further evidence that inflation is slowing.
Dollar Rebound on Fed's Hawkish Tone
In yesterday's market, the U.S. equity market took a breather after all three major indexes had risen more than 5% in May. All eyes are now on Nvidia’s earnings report due on Wednesday, which has the potential to spur the equity market further. In Asia, the Chinese stock markets also saw a retracement, with fresh data indicating that the property sector in China remains a significant concern.
U.S. stock indexes retreated from their record-high levels. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 274 points (-0.71%) to 38,380, the S&P 500 fell 15 points (-0.32%) to 4,942, the Nasdaq 100 was down 29 points (-0.17%) to 17,613.
Nvidia (NVDA) gained 4.79% to $693.32, marking a third consecutive record close. Goldman Sachs raised its price target on the stock to $800. Tesla (TSLA) fell 3.65% to $181.06, the lowest close since May 2023. ON Semiconductor (ON) jumped 9.54% as fourth-quarter results exceeded market expectations.
Markets Q4 Outlook: Dow Jones, US Dollar, Gold, Fed, Euro, ECB, Oil, Volatility Returns？
As investors head into the fourth quarter, the VIX Volatility Index - often referred to as the market‘s ’fear gauge - is in an uptrend. In September, US benchmark stock indices saw some of the worst monthly performance since March 2020. In fact, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 finished the third quarter little changed. More importantly, they trimmed most of their gains. The Dow Jones declined.
EUR/USD pares heavy losses below 1.1800 ahead of US data, Fed
EUR/USD consolidates recent losses to poke intraday high.
How Will Fed’s Rate Cut Affect Forex Market in November
Coming to November, a series of major global events such as ECB President Draghi’s farewell speech, the Fed’s 3rd interest rate cut in the year and the general sluggish trend in global manufacturing continues to stir up the forex market. Here’s a quick look at what’s going on recently that may affect the forex trend.
EUR/USD Looks to US Retail Sales, Sentiment Data After ECB
EUR/USD may rise if US retail sales and sentiment data amplify growing Fed rate cut bets after the ECB failed to meet the markets ultra-dovish expectations.
Euro Braces for ECB and Draghi, US Dollar Eyes CPI Data
Global traders will be in for a turbulent day as the ECB prepares to announce its rate decision which may inspire market-wide volatility. This may be amplified by US CPI data.
Euro May Rise vs US Dollar if Jobs Data Boosts Fed Rate Cut Bets
The Euro may rise against the US Dollar if US nonfarm payrolls data undershoots expectations and boosts the case for more accommodative Fed monetary policy.
US Dollar Price Volatility Outlook: Data & Fed Cuts in Focus
US Dollar currency volatility eyes the barrage of high-impact economic data releases slated for Thursday and how it might sway Fed rate cut expectations.
US Dollar May Rise on Trump EU Trade Announcement
US Dollar traders will be closely watching US President Donald Trumps announcement on EU trade and the publication of non-farm payroll data
USD Soars on Fed, Gold Price Cleared Support on Less Dovish Powell
The US Dollar soared as the Fed cut rates for the first time since 2008 but Chair Jerome Powell surprised less dovish, increasing the risk of a reversal in anti-fiat gold prices.
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