Worse-than-expected Jobs Data May Spark Reversal in GBP

WikiFX News (11 Aug) - At 14:00 today (GMT+8), the U.K. released its jobs data, which is worse than expected. In this condition, investors should pay heed to reversal signals on GBP/USD and GBP/JYP.

Based on the expectation that the government will support the payrolls of over 9 million workers, the U.K.s National Institute of Economic and Social Research estimated the subsidy amount, which indicates that the jobless numbers will jump above 3 million and the unemployment rate will surge to 10% by the end of the year.

However, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England projected “the unemployment rate to rise to around 7.5% by the end of the year”. Although the central bank assesses that “the existing stance of monetary policy remains appropriate”, the marked increase in unemployment rate may force the BoE to reassess its current approach and galvanize it into expanding the current £750 billion quantitative easing program.

A worse-than-expected employment data may hamper GBP/USD and GBP/JYP and lead to investors positioning for the provision of more monetary stimulus, discounting the performance of GBP against its major counterparts.

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