S&P 500: Best Q1 Since 1998 Despite ETF Outflows

Stock Market Talking Points:

股市谈话要点：

• SPY, IVV, and VOO shed capital during the S&P 500s best quarter in nearly ten years

  SPY，IVV和VOO在标准普尔期间流失资金近十年来500年来最佳季度

• Elsewhere, government debt ETFs saw demand that reflects the recent yield curve inversion

  在其他地方，政府债券ETF反映了近期收益率曲线反转的需求

  {3}

• Interested in equities and ETF fund flows？ Sign up for the weekly webinar - Stock Market Catalysts for the Week Ahead

  {3}

S&P 500: Best Q1 Since 1998 Despite ETF Outflows

标准普尔500指数：自1998年以来的最佳第一季度尽管ETF流出

The S&P 500 looks to cap off this week – and the first quarter – with a marginal increase from the prior session but large enough to solidify the best quarterly performance for the index since Q3, 2009 around 12.50%. Compared exclusively to other first quarters, Q1, 2019 offered the highest return since Q1, 1998.

标准普尔500指数看起来本周 - 以及第一季度 - 与前一交易日相比略有增加，但足以巩固该指数自2009年第三季度以来的最佳季度表现，约为12.50％。与其他第一季度完全相比，2019年第一季度提供了自1998年第一季度以来的最高回报。

S&P 500 Quarterly Returns (Chart 1)

标准普尔500指数季度回报（图1）

Learn tips and tricks to day trading the S&P 500

了解标准普尔500指数日内交易的提示和技巧

Despite the stellar quarterly return, the aggregate fund flows from SPY, IVV and VOO recorded an outflow of $1.6 billion during the period, assisted by the largest intraday outflow for the funds ever. It is also worth noting that the majority of inflows were recorded in the second half of the quarter, specifically during March which saw $9.1 billion in inflows.

尽管季度回报率很高，但SPY，IVV和VOO的总资金流量却出现了流出在此期间的16亿美元，在有史以来最大的资金盘中流出的帮助下。值得注意的是，大部分资金流入都记录在本季度的下半年，特别是在3月期间，流入资金达到了91亿美元。

Aggregate Fund Flows of SPY, IVV and VOO ETFs (Chart 2)

SPY，IVV的总资金流量和VOO ETF（图2）

February saw $2.9 billion in net inflows while January notched a rather painful $13.6 billion in outflows following Decembers rout. It appears many investors were hesitant to buy into the recovery rally until it was well underway.

2月份净流入29亿美元，而1月份在Decembers溃败之后出现了相当痛苦的136亿美元资金流出。似乎许多投资者在收购反弹之前犹豫不决，直到收益良好。

Exchange Traded Funds and the Yield Curve Inversion

交易所交易基金和收益率铜ve Inversion

Elsewhere, fund flows offered further evidence for the recent yield curve inversion. The BIL ETF – which grants exposure similar to that of 1-3 month treasury bills – saw $146 million in inflows this week. Interestingly, the fund recorded net outflows of $617 million for the quarter with consistent outflows during January and February.

在其他地方，资金流动为近期收益率曲线反转提供了进一步的证据。 BIL ETF - 其授予类似于1-3个月国库券的风险敞口 - 本周流入了1.46亿美元。有趣的是，该基金在本季度录得6.17亿美元的净流出，并在1月和2月持续流出。

BIL ETF Fund Flows (Chart 3)

BIL ETF基金流量（图3）

{15}

On the other hand, funds that grant exposure to longer-term treasuries recorded outflows this week as the yield curve inverts further. The TLT ETF saw net outflows reach $175 million for the week, nearly a perfect contrast to the inflows into BIL. For the quarter, TLT saw $775 million in fresh capital.

{15}

TLT ETF Fund Flows (Chart 4)

TLT ETF基金流量（图4）

The contrasting performances potentially reflect the type of demand behind the flows throughout the quarter. In January - when investors were wrestling with the recent rout and seeking relative safety - both short and long-term government debt ETFs recorded inflows.

对比鲜明的表现可能反映了整个季度流量背后的需求类型。 1月份 - 当投资者正在努力应对最近的溃败并寻求相对安全时 - 短期和长期政府债券ETF均录得流入。

As the quarter progressed, shorter-term debt was cast aside while TLT saw continued demand amid global growth uncertainty and an uncertain outlook for the S&P 500. Since the March FOMC meeting, TLT has seen $536 million in outflows while BIL recorded $256 million in inflows, reflecting the lack of upside in exposure to longer-term debt as futures markets begin to price in a cut to the Federal Funds rate range in 2020 and uncertainty about the future grows.

随着季度的进展，短期债务由于全球经济增长的不确定性以及标准普尔500指数的前景不确定，TLT持续需求受到抛弃。自3月FOMC会议以来，TLT的流出量已达到5.36亿美元，而BIL则录得2.56亿美元的流入量，反映出随着期货市场在2020年联邦基金利率范围内开始降价以及未来的不确定性增长，长期债务也会增加。

As the record first quarter draws to a close, the outlook for the second is muddied with conflicting themes. Should the yield curve inversion strengthen, investors may continue the current trend in BIL and TLT. Elsewhere, the three broad-market tracking funds could witness deeper outflows as investors look to shift capital allocation out of the S&P 500 in its tenth year of a bull-run. That being said, relatively high correlations in other markets present ample trading opportunities in the coming quarter.

随着第一季度的创纪录收盘价关闭，第二个的前景混乱，主题相互矛盾。应该是收益率曲线加强，投资者可能会继续目前BIL和TLT的走势。其他方面，由于投资者希望在公牛运营的第十年将资本配置从标准普尔500指数中转移出去，三大市场跟踪基金可能会出现更深层次的资金流出。话虽如此，其他市场的相对较高的相关性在下一季度提供了充足的交易机会。

Read more: Will the Stock Market Crash in 2019？

了解更多：2019年股市崩盘？

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

- 由DailyFX.com的初级分析师Peter Hanks撰写

DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you‘re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

DailyFX对各种货币（如美元或欧元）的预测可从DailyFX交易指南页面获得。如果您希望改善您的交易方法，请查看成功交易者的特征。如果您正在寻找外汇市场的入门介绍，请查看我们的新外汇指南。