Crude Oil May Be Overextended, But Watch Out For Trade Headlines

Fundamental Crude Oil Forecast: Neutral

基本原油预测：中性

• Crude oils uptrend looks solid enough

  原油上升趋势看起来稳固足够

• However, it also looks overbought at a time of deep fundamental uncertainty

  然而，在深刻的基本不确定性时期，它看起来也处于超买状态

• A consolidation could be coming, assuming no left-field trade news

  假设没有左场贸易新闻，整合可能即将到来

Looking for a technical perspective on Crude Oil？ Check out the Weekly Crude Oil Technical Forecast.

寻找原油的技术观点？查看每周原油技术预测。

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Crude oil prices head into a new week still very much within the uptrend on their daily chart which has endured since the lows of last December.

自去年12月的低点以来，原油价格进入新的一周仍处于其日线图的上升趋势中。

To be sure clear uncertainties still glower over likely global economic growth. Data from all key regions has disappointed of late, with last weeks softer US growth numbers only adding to the sense of deepening malaise.

确定明确的不确定性仍然发光可能是全球经济增长。来自所有主要地区的数据最近都令人失望，上周疲软的美国增长数据只会增加不适感加深。

Of course, a feeble global economy will lead inevitably to reduced oil demand, so its reasonable to assume that the current up-move remains rooted in expectations of reduced supply. After all, oil prices are now about 30% above their 2018 lows supported by output cuts from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major players, along with US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran.

当然，虚弱的全球经济将不可避免地导致石油需求减少，因此可以合理地假设当前的上涨仍然源于对供应减少的预期。毕竟，由于石油输出国组织和其他主要参与者的减产以及美国对委内瑞拉和伊朗的制裁，油价现在比2018年的低点高约30％。

US President Donald Trump last week called on OPEC to ‘increase the flow of oil.’ He seems to have done so in less bellicose terms than those in which he has previously couched similar entreaties, this time noting fragile global markets.

This week will bring news of Chinese economic performance in the form of official and private Purchasing Managers Index surveys, with the country‘s manufacturing sectors expected to keep contracting, as it has for three straight months already. The markets will also get a look at Japanese business confidence in the bellwether Tankan survey due for release on Monday. Official US labor statistics will round out the week’s numbers.

本周将以官方和私人采购经理人指数调查的形式带来中国经济表现的消息，该国的制造业预计将继续收缩，因为它已经连续三个月了。市场还将了解日本商业对周一释放的领头羊短观调查的信心。美国官方劳工统计数据将使本周的数据更加完善。

Given recent data disappointments there would seem to potential risks for oil prices in all this data. Moreover, the crude oil spot market is also edging up toward overbought levels judging by momentum indicators such as its Relative Strength Index. It could be due a rest.

鉴于最近的数据令人失望，所有这些数据中的油价似乎都存在潜在风险。此外，根据相对强弱指数等动量指标判断，原油现货市场也将走向超买水平。可能需要休息。

With that in mind its a neutral call.

考虑到这一点，这是一个中性的呼吁。

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交易者资源

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--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

--- David Cottle撰稿，DailyFX Research