Lyft, Uber, Pinterest: Are internet unicorns really worth billions？

Image copyrightGetty Images

图片copyrightGetty图片

This week has been a momentous one for the US stock market.

本周对美国股市来说是一个重要的一周。

Lyft, the ride-hailing company, sold its shares to the public for the first time, heralding a march of the “unicorns”.

Lyft，这家乘坐公司的公司首次向公众出售其股票，预示着“独角兽”的游行。

A stream of these businesses - which are defined as private, venture capital-backed firms worth over $1bn - are set to follow, including Lyft's rival Uber, online scrapbook company Pinterest and home-sharing site AirBnB.

这些业务的流程 - 被定义为私有，价值超过10亿美元的风险资本支持公司将会效仿，包括Lyft的竞争对手优步，在线剪贴簿公司Pinterest和家庭共享网站AirBnB。

And they are attracting some staggering valuations. Uber, for example, could be worth as much as $120bn when it floats.

他们吸引了一些估值惊人。例如，Uber浮动时的价值可能高达1200亿美元。

For Lyft, its shares listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange at $72 each, giving it a market value of just over $24bn - more than five times the size of, say, British High Street stalwart Marks & Spencer.

对于Lyft，其股票在纳斯达克证券交易所上市，每股72美元，具有市场价值超过240亿美元 - 超过英国高街坚定的马克斯和斯宾塞的五倍。

• For Uber and Lyft, reality is arriving soon

• Lyft valued at $24bn ahead of share market debut

  Lyft在股市首次亮相之前价值240亿美元

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• Lyft arrives at the US stock exchange

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But unlike M&S, which has been around for well over a century, Lyft is only seven years old - and it is yet to make a profit.

但不像M＆S，它已经存在了很长时间一个世纪以来，Lyft只有七岁 - 它尚未盈利。

“I did a lot of research on private venture capital backed companies,” said Ilya Strebulaev, professor of finance at Stanford University.

“我对私人风险资本支持公司进行了大量研究，”Ilya Strebulaev说道。 ，斯坦福大学金融学教授。

“We find that on average the unicorns are overvalued by about 50%.”

“我们发现平均而言，独角兽被高估了约50％。”

Should investors stay away？

投资者是否应该远离？

Lyft makes some big claims in its initial public offering (IPO) prospectus.

Lyft在其首次公开募股中提出了一些重大要求（ IPO）招股说明书。

Its business model is based on the idea that having a car is expensive and as urbanisation grows, people are shifting away from owning vehicles to using services to get around.

它的商业模式基于这样的想法：拥有一辆汽车是昂贵的，随着城市化的发展，人们正在从拥有车辆转向使用服务来绕行。

It says that in the US alone, households spend over $1.2 trillion a year on personal transportation. That's the prize Lyft is going after.

据说仅在美国，家庭每年在个人交通上花费超过1.2万亿美元。这是Lyft正在追求的奖项。

Image copyrightReutersImage caption Lyft's founders John Zimmer (left) and Logan Green are multi-millionaires following the flotation

图片copyrightReutersImage标题Lyft的创始人John Zimmer（左）和Logan Green是浮选后的百万富翁

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Rett Wallace, founder and chief executive of Triton Research, said there is merit in Lyft's business model. “The idea that you don't have to have a car that you don't use 95% of the time, and maintain, and insure and garage… transportation could be performed better than what Detroit has given us.”

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However, transportation as a service is a nascent industry.

然而，作为一项服务的交通运输是一个新生的行业。

Tom White, senior research analyst at DA Davidson, says: “There isn't a ton of evidence yet that it's happening on any broad scale.”

DA戴维森的高级研究分析师汤姆怀特说：“没有大量证据表明它正在大规模发生。”

There is some data showing a shift, he said. For example, the proportion of 18 year-old Americans licensed to drive, fell from 76% in 1986 to 62% in 2016, according to Department of Transportation.

有一些数据表明这种转变，他说。例如，根据交通部的数据，18岁的美国人驾驶执照的比例从1986年的76％下降到2016年的62％。

But broad vehicle ownership data “indicates that it's not really having much of a massive impact yet”.

但广泛的车辆拥有权数据“表明它还没有真正产生太大的影响”。

Then there are Lyft's losses.

然后有Lyft的损失。

Between 2016 and 2018, its revenues grew strongly from $343m to $2.1bn. However, its losses jumped from $682m to $911m.

2016年之间和2018年，其收入从3.43亿美元强劲增长至21亿美元。然而，其损失从6.82亿美元跃升至9.11亿美元。

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Uber is also loss-making, though the figure has dropped from $2.2bn in 2017 to $1.8bn last year.

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Prof Strebulaev said that typically venture capital-backed businesses make losses “because they basically sacrifice profits to achieve very high growth or scale”.

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But “the question really for everybody and for investors,” he said, “is whether Lyft and Uber's business model will allow them to convert these very substantial losses into profits at some point... and whether the market will sustain those losses.”

但是“对每个人和投资者来说真正的问题，”他说，“Lyft和Uber的商业模式是否会让他们在某些时候将这些非常大的损失转化为利润......以及市场能否维持这些损失。 ”

It feels like familiar territory. It is nearly 20 years since the height of the dotcom boom, and its messy aftermath.

这感觉就像熟悉的领域。自互联网繁荣的高峰期以及其混乱的后果已近20年。

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Image copyrightGetty ImagesImage caption Snap's share price has dropped since floating in March 2017

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Mr Wallace said: “We had a small taste of what a dotcom crash looks like in the Snap story.”

华莱士先生说：“我们对Snap故事中的互联网崩溃事件有一点了解。”

Since floating in New York two years ago at $17 a share, Snap Inc has had a tumultuous time, including a controversial redesign of its flagship message app Snapchat. Its stock is now trading at $10.

自从漂浮在纽约两个几年前，Snap公司每股17美元，动荡不安，包括对其旗舰消息应用Snapchat的有争议的重新设计。它的股票现在交易价格为10美元。

“A lot of investors lost money with Snap,” he said. “We have a flavour of what it looks like for investors to rush into these things and get killed.”

“许多投资者用Snap赔钱，”他说。 “我们对投资者匆匆忙忙进入这些事情并被杀害的样子有所了解。”

Are people being too cautious？

人们是否过于谨慎？

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Mr White said there is a big difference between the internet companies of the late 1990s and early 2000s, and now.

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“These companies are a lot larger and more established in a lot of ways,” he said. “They've been able to amass massive amounts of private capital and stay private for longer and achieve a size and scale that was pretty rare for a company that was about to go public the last time around.”

“这些公司规模更大，更成熟在很多方面，”他说。 “他们已经能够积累大量的私人资本，并且可以保持更长时间的私有化，并实现规模和规模，这对于最近一次即将上市的公司来说非常罕见。”

Prof Strebulaev said: In the previous cycle, the business models were more about promise of the future and the promise of the future revenues.

Strebulaev教授说：在上一个周期中，商业模式更多的是对未来的承诺和未来收入的承诺。

“Many companies today do have those revenues. It is now about a promise of future profitability which is very different.”

“许多公司今天确实有这些收入。现在，这是对未来盈利能力的承诺，这是非常不同的。”

Among Lyft's plans for the $2.3bn it is raising from its IPO, are to invest in acquisitions and technology.

Lyft计划从其首次公开募股筹集23亿美元资金，用于投资收购和技术。

It is already devoting money and resources to autonomous driving.

已经投入资金和资源进行自动驾驶。

It is working with Irish firm Aptiv to trial self-driving cars in Las Vegas, where it has completed thousands of journeys. It is also developing its own autonomous vehicle system at its “Level 5” engineering centre.

正与爱尔兰公司Aptiv合作试用自动驾驶汽车在拉斯维加斯，它已经完成了数千次旅行。它还在其“5级”工程中心开发自己的自动驾驶汽车系统。

However, driverless cars are a long way from operating on public roads.

然而，无人驾驶汽车很长在公共道路上行驶的方式。

And Mr White thinks in order for ride-hailing firms to make transport services a cheaper alternative to car ownership, prices will have to fall by maybe 30-40% - a move that would impact Lyft's financials.

怀特先生认为，为了让乘车公司能够使运输服务成为汽车保有量的更便宜的替代品，价格将不得不下降30美元。 -40％ - 此举会影响Lyft的财务状况。

What does it mean for other flotations？

其他上市意味着什么？

As well as Uber, Pinterest and AirBnB, serviced office provider WeWork and messaging firm Slack are also rumoured to be contemplating a stock market listing.

以及优步，Pinterest和AirBnB，服务式办公室提供商WeWork和消息公司Slack也传言正在考虑进入股票市场。

Prof Strebulaev suggests one reason why so many firms are considering the move this year is because of economics.

Strebulaev教授建议一个因为经济原因，为什么这么多公司正在考虑这一举措的原因。

“If there's going to be a recession then the IPO window might close,” he said. “That happened, of course, in 2000 when the IPO window closed, when not a single company could go public.”

“如果出现衰退，那么IPO窗口可能会关闭，”他说。 “当然，这种情况发生在2000年，当IPO窗口关闭时，没有一家公司可以上市。”

“Can this happen tomorrow？ I don't expect so. Can this happen over the next six months？ I think it is not unlikely.”

“明天会发生这种情况吗？我不希望如此这可能会在未来六个月内发生吗？我认为这不太可能。”

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There is a danger, though, if there is a rush to market, investors could end up getting burned.

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Mr Wallace said: I think if I was losing $1bn a year in my company and I could sell it to a bunch of American retail investors, I would be psyched to do that whatever the IPO window is.

无论IPO窗口是什么，都很兴奋。

“Look at the losses - someone has got to pay for these losses.”

“看看损失 - 有人必须为这些损失买单。”

Prof Strebulaev said: “What I believe, and this is not really about Uber and Lyft, but an average unicorn, is that there are 100-plus of them and it is difficult to imagine based on historical evidence and my research that all of them are going to be successful.”