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Abstract:There were concerns that the Australian dollar's early gains against the US dollar would be erased as yesterday's trade progressed into the US session.
As we approached US trade yesterday, there were some concerns that the AUD/early USD gains might fade. However, when risk sentiment improved, the Australian dollar's fortunes improved as well, and that attitude is continuing today. The pair is up 0.2% to 0.7120 and is now approaching its August highs of 0.7125-36.
A break over that resistance level would pave the way for a further upward rise toward last year's May and June highs of approximately 0.7265-83.
The stronger inflation statistics released yesterday are adding gasoline to the fire for the Australian dollar's rise, almost guaranteeing a 25 basis point rate increase in two weeks. Following the Bank of Canada's decision to remain on the sidelines following yesterday's rate rise, that is now the new standard by which major central banks will be measured.
The fact that stocks have shown some resilience this week and are looking to maintain a technical breakthrough this week is also a plus for the Aussie. Yesterday's improvement was good, reflecting earlier in the week's purchasing enthusiasm.
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
Australia's trade surplus has surged to an 11-month high, reaching $5.62 billion in January 2025. The unexpected boost in trade surplus was primarily driven by a 1.3% month-over-month increase in exports, with non-monetary gold playing a starring role.
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The foreign exchange market is inherently volatile, with its sharp fluctuations driven not only by changes in the global economic landscape but also by large-scale speculative capital and the influence of major market players, further intensifying its instability.
Central banks have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually for three consecutive years, and 2024 is no exception. However, the key question remains: as demand for gold continues to rise, will its price keep increasing?