DBG Markets: Market Report for Jan 22, 2025

Market Analysis

GOLD - GOLD prices have risen significantly after Trump‘s first day. How so？ There is uncertainty revolving around the policies that Trump is sending forward, which has slowed down the Dollar’s rally. Additionally, he has first imposed the mass deportation of illegal immigrants, which may impact the immediate condition of the economy and businesses. Furthermore, Trumps delay in issuing tariffs has caused analysts to reassess how this will impact the economy, not to mention his possible shift in dynamics with international relations.

Trump‘s current unpredictability and the market’s constant watch on his moves have caused a massive increase in GOLD prices due to investors looking to secure their funds and lower risks in an unpredictable market. At any moment, if he makes an announcement or a sudden decision on a policy, it will move everything.

Looking at the charts, we can see that the MACD is showing increased bullish momentum and volume with no apparent signs of a slowdown. We can also see the RSI normalize and display a divergence in price, showing strength in momentum for the current buying of the market. Overall price action is still very bullish. We do not know when the top might be, but we expect the market to rise further in the next few candles, with chances for a slight pullback if anything changes in Trumps second day in office.

SILVER - Silver prices have risen slightly but remain just above 30.6675. There is potential for further upward movement as both the MACD and RSI reflect healthy bullish momentum. Price action supports continued buying, although silvers gains may be less pronounced compared to gold. Vigilance is necessary, as some investors may shift back to the Dollar if its appeal improves.

DXY - The Dollar Index gap remains unfilled, with prices consolidating as investors await Trump‘s next policy moves. Both the MACD and RSI show increasing momentum and volume, but the lack of clarity surrounding Trump’s tariff policies leaves the market in limbo.

GBPUSD - Despite the Dollar‘s weakness, the Pound’s appeal remains limited due to strained relations between the UK and Trumps administration. The UK economy is expected to face challenges under Trump, particularly if tariffs are imposed. Current prices have failed to breach 1.23720, though short-term developments suggest potential for a positive movement in the Pound. The MACD and RSI indicate increased buying momentum, and price action has shifted bullishly in the short term. However, broader fundamentals still point to underlying bearishness.

AUDUSD - The Australian dollar remains within its consolidation zone but shows comfort near the higher boundary. The MACD indicates increased buying volume, though the RSI reflects overbought and oversold conditions at both extremes, signaling indecision. While price action has shifted to a bullish bias, a reversal is likely as markets anticipate weakness due to potential rate cuts by the RBA in the coming months.

NZDUSD - The New Zealand dollar mirrors the Australian dollar, staying within its consolidation range. Both the MACD and RSI lack clear direction, as analysts evaluate Trump‘s policy moves and their implications for global trade. Markets are cautious, with Trump’s unpredictability leaving investors hesitant. Price action suggests consolidation will persist until clearer signals emerge.

EURUSD - The Euro remains in a precarious position, with Trumps threats of tariffs straining relations between the U.S. and Europe. While these dynamics may weigh on the Euro in the long term, current prices have risen above 1.03311, signaling a shift in short-term momentum. The MACD shows potential for increased buying strength, while the RSI is normalizing and gaining momentum. Though the broader outlook remains bearish, short-term buying opportunities exist as prices approach resistance levels.

USDJPY - The Yen remains consolidated after failing to touch 154.703. Both the MACD and RSI are also in consolidation, though the RSI is nearing overbought levels. Price action remains bearish overall, with the market anticipating further declines ahead of a potential rate hike by the BOJ on Friday. With 18 out of 19 economists predicting a rate increase, the Yen is expected to see increased selling pressure in the near term.

USDCHF - The Franc is gaining strength against the Dollar, staying below 0.90743. Both the RSI and MACD reflect increasing momentum and volume, supporting a bearish outlook for the Dollar in this pair. Prices are likely to remain under resistance in the near term.

USDCAD - The Canadian dollar remains consolidated with erratic whipsaw movements, as markets seek clarity on Trumps policies. Both the MACD and RSI provide unreliable signals at this stage, reflecting indecision. Despite this, price action continues to respect key boundaries, maintaining a bullish structure. We expect further upward movement once the market gains clarity.