Aussie Dollar Falls on RBA Minutes, US-China Trade Talks Eyed

TALKING POINTS – AUSSIE DOLLAR, RBA MINUTES, ZEW, TRADE WARS, CHINA

• Aussie Dollar, commodity bloc FX down on downbeat RBA meeting minute

• Germanys ZEW survey may compound worries about slowing global growth

• Trade wars in focus on US-China negotiations, fears of US auto tariff hike

The sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars weakened in otherwise quiet Asia Pacific trade. The move appeared to be inspired by an ominous tone in minutes from Februarys RBA policy meeting. Meanwhile, the US Dollar corrected gently higher.

RBA officials cited “significant uncertainties”, noting that trade tensions and cooling domestic demand have increased negative knock-on risks from China. They added that consumption may fall if domestic house prices fall much further. They suffered the worst drop since 1983 in the three months through January.

TRADE WAR DEVELOPMENTS, GERMAN ZEW DATA MENACE MARKET

Looking ahead, Germanys ZEW survey of analyst sentiment may compound the downbeat mood, especially if it echoes the disappointing trend in regional data outcomes since September. A small improvement in the forward-looking Expectations index is nevertheless expected to keep it within a hair of six-year lows.

The tone of US-China trade negotiations may also be formative as a delegation from Beijing arrives in the US for continued talks. Both sides painted a rosy picture earlier in the week, but the Trump administration may be preparing a spoiler as the President ponders raising auto import tariffs.

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ASIA PACIFIC TRADING SESSIO

EUROPEAN TRADING SESSIO

** All times listed in GMT. See the full economic calendar here.