Crude Oil Prices May Break 2019 Uptrend on Global Slowdown Fears

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

原油和黄金谈话要点：

• Crude oil prices narrowly clinging to 2019 trend line support

  原油价格勉强紧贴2019年趋势线支持

• Risk-off sentiment, EIA and API data may trigger breakdown

  风险偏好情绪，环境影响评估和API数据可能会导致细分

• Gold prices in digestion mode, broad bias still seems bearish

  消化模式下的黄金价格，广泛的偏见仍然看似看跌

Commodities were in digestion mode on Monday. Crude oil prices consolidated after Fridays plunge. Gold prices retraced downward, erasing nearly all of the gains scored in the wake of US GDP data. The spotlight now turns to first-quarter Eurozone GDP data.

商品周一处于消化模式。周五暴跌后原油价格走强。黄金价格向下回落，几乎消除了美国GDP数据带来的所有涨幅。现在的焦点转向第一季度的欧元区GDP数据。

Growth readings for France, Italy and the currency bloc as a whole are due to cross the wires. Regional news-flow has tended to underperform relative to baseline forecasts, opening the door for disappointing results that stoke global slowdown fears and cool risk appetite.

法国，意大利和整个欧元区的增长数据都是由于交叉线。区域新闻流量相对于基线预测倾向于表现不佳，为令人失望的结果打开了大门，这些结果引发了全球经济放缓的担忧和降低的风险偏好。

Cycle-sensitive crude prices may fall against this backdrop. Gold may rise as the defensive mood weighs on bond yields, boosting the comparative appeal of non-interest-bearing alternatives. Gains may be capped if the US Dollar finds support from haven flows, discouraging anti-fiat demand.

周期敏感的原油价格可能会下跌这个背景。随着防御情绪对债券收益率的影响，黄金价格可能上涨，从而提升了无息替代品的相对吸引力。如果美元从避险资金流中获得支撑，阻止反法定需求，则涨幅可能受到限制。

Oil prices might face a further pressure as monthly EIA report on output comes across the wires. Leading weekly statistics put US production at a record-high 12.2 million barrels/day. API inventory flow data is also on tap and will be weighed against expectations of a 1.28-million-barrel build last week.

油价可能面临进一步压力，因为每月环评报告中有关输出的报告。领先的每周统计数据显示美国产量达到创纪录的1220万桶/天。 API库存流量数据也随之而来，并将与上周的128万桶建设预期进行权衡。

See the latest gold and crude oil forecasts to learn what will drive prices in the second quarter!

查看最新的黄金和原油预测以了解推动价格在第二季度！

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

黄金技术分析

Gold prices remain wedged between support in the 1260.80-63.76 area and resistance marked by the recently broken neckline of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) topping pattern, now at 1290. A break below the former level sees the next downside barrier in the 1235.11-38.00 zone. Alternatively, a push above resistance sets targets the $1300/oz figure. The H&S setup implies an overall downside target at 1215.00.

1260.80-63.76区域的支撑位和阻力位之间的黄金价格仍然处于徘徊状态最近破损的头肩（H＆S）顶部图案的颈线，现在是1290.突破至前一个水平，看到1235.11-38.00区域的下一个下行障碍。或者，上方阻力位设定为1300美元/盎司。 H＆S设置意味着整体下行目标t 1215.00。

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

原油技术分析

Crude oil prices are idling at trend line support set form December. A daily close below this level – now at 63.30 – initially exposes 60.39. A dense resistance cluster runs through 67.03. A rebound above that, likewise confirmed on a closing basis, sets the stage for a challenge of the $70/bbl figure.

12月趋势线支撑位原油价格空转。每日收盘价低于此水平 - 现在为63.30--最初暴露60.39。一个密集的阻力集群贯穿67.03。同样在收盘基础上确认的反弹，为70美元/桶的数据提供了挑战。

---由DailyFX.com的货币策略师Ilya Spivak撰写