Gold Price Forecast

There was a round turn overnight between a low of $1,795.12 and a high of $1,817.42 as gains in the USD eased.

After all that, XAU/USD was ending flat on the day despite that risk-off tone that weighed heavily on the likes of silver prices and currencies, such as the commodity-linked AUD.

''Since the FOMC last met, the labour market, Retail Sales and inflation have all come in very strong. While the rise in COVID cases is a valid concern, there is a risk that the market is becoming too dovish on its expectations for the Feds communication next week,'' analysts at ANZ Bank said.

This completes the thesis that the US dollar smile theory is real and a headwind for gold prices for the foreseeable future.

Technically, gold's breakout from its recent trading range may be attracting some interest from technicians, but it has recently taken a turn for the worst, pressuring the convergence of the 10 and 20-day EMAs near 1,810:

However, only a break and daily close below the 1,800 thresholds would likely upset the bulls.

Meanwhile, from a weekly perspective, the bears could be looking to engage in droves from the 38.2% Fibonacci wall of resistance.

The confluence of the 20 and 10 EMAs, a prior structure dating as far back as summer 2020 bar November's business as well as the 38.2% Fibo makes for potentially strong resistance.

The counter-trendline support and confluence of the -61.8% Fibo for the current correction's range near 1,700 could come under pressure on a break of the current daily lows of 1,750.

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