Q2 Themes: USD Triangle, EURUSD Range, Risk Aversion in Stocks, Yen

US Dollar, EURUSD, USDJPY, S&P 500 Talking Points:

美元，欧元兑美元，美元兑日元，标准普尔500指数谈话要点：

- Today is the final trading day of what‘s been a busy quarter, and this has been the strongest quarter for the S&P 500 since 2009, which comes on the heels of the a Q4 sell-off that marked the worst quarter since 2011. It’s rare to see that type of volatility expansion, and this maybe telling market participants something to watch for in the remainder of this year.

- 今天是繁忙季度的最后一个交易日，这有自2009年以来标准普尔500指数成为最强劲的季度，紧随第四季度抛售，这是自2011年以来最糟糕的季度。很少见到这种类型的波动性扩张，这可能告诉市场参与者需要注意的事项今年余下的时间。

- The impasse in currency-land has continued as both the US Dollar and EURUSD remain mired in varying forms of congestion. In the US Dollar, the ascending triangle has been building throughout this year, and this points to bullish potential in the currency. Meanwhile, EURUSD remains in a range-bound formation thats held through an Italy-Brussels debt stand-off, an announcement of stimulus-exit, and then an announcement of fresh stimulus. Will this range finally give way in Q2？

- 由于美元和欧元兑美元仍然陷入各种形式的拥挤状态，货币土地的僵局仍在继续。在美元中，上升三角形在今年全年都在建立，这表明该货币的看涨潜力。与此同时，欧元兑美元依然存在于意大利 - 布鲁塞尔债务对峙中的区间形态，宣布刺激退出，然后宣布新的刺激措施。这个范围最终会在第二季度让位吗？

- DailyFX Forecasts are published on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euroand are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you‘re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

- DailyFX预测以各种货币（如美元或欧元）发布，可从DailyFX交易指南页面获取。如果您希望改善您的交易方法，请查看成功交易者的特征。如果您正在寻找外汇市场的入门介绍，请查看我们的新外汇指南。

Do you want to see how retail traders are currently trading the US Dollar？ Check out our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

您想了解零售交易商目前如何交易美元？查看我们的IG客户情绪指标。

US Dollar Finishes Q1 Higher, But Longer-Term Congestion Remains

美元兑换Q1汇率更高，但长期拥挤仍然存在

It‘s been a busy quarter across global markets and as the Q2 open nears, the US Dollar remains in the ascending triangle formation that’s been building since last year. A January loss in the US Dollar was recovered in February and March: But sellers wouldnt allow for a top-side breakout of the November and December swing-highs, keeping the 97.70 area of the chart as the yearly high in the currency.

这是在全球市场上一直是一个繁忙的季度，随着第二季度的开放临近，美元仍然处于自去年以来一直在建设的上升三角形中。 2月和3月1月美元兑美元汇率有所回升：但卖家不会允许11月和12月摆动高点突破，将图表的97.70区域保持在该货币的年度高位。

US Dollar Daily Price Chart

美元每日价格走势图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

图表由James Stanley编写

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Last week‘s FOMC rate announcement brought in an initial move of aggressive weakness, with USD posing a fast drop down to a support trendline that connects the September and January swing lows. Buyers came back at that point, and they’ve continued to drive in the week since, with prices in DXY moving back to the late-January swing-highs around 97.21-97.30; keeping that ascending triangle formation alive and producing a net-move of strength after the March FOMC rate decision, even as the bank made a dovish move by cutting rate forecasts for 2019.

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US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart

美元四小时价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

The big question around the Dollar at this point is what else the Fed might be able to do to compel a bearish move？ The ECB just launched another round of stimulus, and going by Mr. Draghis comments yesterday morning, the European Central Bank is unlikely to move away from an extremely cautious stance as growth and inflation have both started slowing in the bloc.

最重要的问题此时围绕美元的走势是美联储可能做出的另一个强迫看跌行动的举措？欧洲央行刚刚推出了另一轮刺激措施，并且在德拉吉昨天早上的评论中，欧洲央行不太可能由于增长和通货膨胀在集团中开始放缓，因此摆脱了极端谨慎的立场。

Which brings up another item of interest, and that is EURUSD.

这带来了另一个感兴趣的项目，那就是欧元兑美元。

EURUSD Range Remains Through QE Announcement: Q2 to Bring a Break？

欧元兑美元区间仍然通过量化宽松政策宣布：第二季度会休息吗？

Its been a climactic five-month period around the Euro-Zone, including a debt stand-off between Italy and Brussels; going along with an announcement of stimulus exit which was followed just a few months later by an announcement of fresh stimulus. But for all the fits and starts, EURUSD has spent most of that time trading in a range-formation that has yet to give way.

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EURUSD Daily Price Chart

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Chart prepared by James Stanley

图表由詹姆斯·斯坦利准备

This theme was in full-view earlier in the month around that announcement of fresh stimulus. EURUSD even temporarily-tipped below the support level at 1.1215 that had previously held the November low, but as discussed in the webinar following the announcement, EURUSD found support at another key level just a little lower around the 1.1187 level, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-2018 bullish move.

这个主题在本月早些时候全面展开，宣布了新的刺激计划。欧元兑美元甚至暂时低于之前持有11月低点的支撑位1.1215，但正如公布后的网络研讨会所述，欧元兑美元在1.1187附近的另一个关键水平略微走低，即61.8％斐波那契回撤2017-2018看涨走势。

EURUSD went into bull-mode after that, running-higher for the next week-and-a-half; again, producing a net move of strength after a dovish move at the representative Central Bank. That theme lasted all the way until EURUSD perked up to the 1.1448 resistance level, and that very much synced with the bearish move in the US Dollar around last weeks FOMC rate decision.

此后欧元兑美元进入牛市模式，未来一周半走高;再次，在代表中央银行的温和行动之后产生强劲的净势头。这个主题一直持续到欧元兑美元一直升至1.1448的阻力水平，而这与美元在近几周FOMC利率决定中的利空走势非常相符。

But, just as seen above in the US Dollar, EURUSD continued to reverse in the aftermath of that rate decision, and prices are now digging deeper within that longer-term zone of support.

但是正如上面的美元所示，欧元兑美元在该利率决定之后继续逆转，而且价格正在这个较长期的支撑区域内深入挖掘。

EURUSD Four-Hour Price Chart

EURUSD四小时价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

Q4 Weakness into Q1 Strength

Q4弱点进入Q1实力

The big item of interest so far in 2019 has been a screaming return of the risk-on trade. Q4 was marked by a vicious reversal as sanguine market themes in US equites posed a violent turn around some comments from FOMC Chair, Jerome Powell. That theme of weakness lasted from the early-October period all the way into Christmas, at which point stocks started to try to cauterize the lows. But, as the door opened into 2019, the risk trade was back in a very big way, and January and February produced very strong showings in US equities.

2019年迄今为止的重大项目是风险交易的尖锐回报。由于FOMC主席杰罗姆鲍威尔的一些评论引发了一场暴力转变，美国公平的市场主题出现暴力转变，第四季度出现恶性逆转。这一弱点主题始于10月初的所有时期进入圣诞节的方式，此时股票开始试图烧灼低点。但是，随着大门进入2019年，风险交易又大幅回升，1月和2月美国股市的表现非常强劲。

At this point, the S&P 500 is on the verge of finishing off its strongest quarter in a decade. And this comes after one of the worst quarters in the past decade, making for a stark contrast in behavior over the past six months.

此时，标准普尔500指数即将完成十年来最强劲的季度。这是在过去十年中最糟糕的一个季度之后出现的，与过去六个月的行为形成鲜明对比。

This theme did hit a bit of a stumbling block around last weeks FOMC rate decision, however; and even as the bank went dovish in their forecasts, which would generally be a positive for the risk trade, the S&P 500 turned-lower and has yet to fully recover. The big question for Q2 is which of these themes remains prominent？ Will Q1 strength continue as investors push the risk-off trade with a backdrop of dovishness from Global Central Banks？ Or – will the Q4 theme of weakness make a return as stocks stumble on growth concerns？

这个主题确实遇到了一些绊脚石然而，在最近几周FOMC利率决定;即使银行在他们的预测中温和，这通常对风险交易有利，但标准普尔500指数转低，并且尚未完全恢复。第二季度的主要问题是这些主题中哪一个仍然突出？随着投资者在全球中央银行的温和背景下推动避险交易，第一季度的实力会继续吗？或者 - 随着股市跌跌撞撞，第四季度的疲软主题将会回归吗？增长担忧？

S&P 500 Daily Price Chart

标准普尔500每日价格走势图

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Chart prepared by James Stanley

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Yen for Risk-Themes in Q2

第二季风险主题的日元

Going along with the themes showing in stocks, USDJPY has had a bifurcated quarter of price action; coming into the period screaming-lower as Yen-strength was pushed by risk aversion themes in the opening days of Q1. But, as risk-on themes started to price-in, USDJPY began to recover and spent most of the next three months moving higher.

随着股票主题的显示，美元兑日元的价格行动出现了分叉;在第一季度的开放日期，由于风险厌恶主题推动了日元走强，进入这个时期的尖叫期低点。但是，随着风险主题开始上涨，美元兑日元开始复苏，并且在接下来的三个月中大部分时间都在走高。

Until last weeks FOMC rate decision, that is, at which point the pair turned-lower and broke through a few different areas of support. Buyers finally returned at a deeper support zone, around the 109.67-110.00 area on the chart, and that has since helped to hold the lows. But -as of yet, buyers have been unable to break above the lower-high and bearish potential remains in the pair, particularly if the risk aversion theme comes back with strength in Q2.

直到上周的FOMC利率决定，即在这一点上，这对货币转向下方并突破了几个不同的支撑区域。买家最终回到更深的支撑区域，位于图表上的109.67-110.00区域附近，此后一直帮助维持低点。但是，到目前为止，买家还是无法突破低点看跌潜力仍然存在于货币对中，特别是如果风险规避主题在第二季度恢复强势。

USDJPY Eight-Hour Price Chart

USDJPY八小时价格图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

To read more:

阅读更多内容：

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar？ Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q4 have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

您是否正在寻找更长期的对美元的分析？我们对Q4的DailyFX预测有一个针对每种主要货币的部分，我们还提供了大量的美元对资源，如欧元/美元，英镑/美元，美元/日元，澳元/美元。交易者还可以通过我们的IG客户情绪指标保持近期定位。

Forex Trading Resources

外汇交易资源

DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you‘re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what were looking at.

DailyFX提供丰富的资源帮助交易者的工具，指标和资源。对于那些寻找交易想法的人，我们的IG客户情绪显示零售交易者的实际交易和头寸定位。我们的交易指南带来了DailyFX季度预测和我们的顶级交易机会;我们的实时新闻Feed有来自DailyFX团队的日内互动。如果您正在寻找实时分析，我们的DailyFX网络研讨会每周都会提供大量会议，您可以在其中查看我们正在查看所查看内容的方式和原因。

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If youre looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

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--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

---由DailyFX.com策略师James Stanley撰写