USDCAD Price Reversal Triggered by Canadian GDP, US Inflation Data

Talking Points:

谈话要点：

- A trio of weak economic data releases have undercut the US Dollar this morning: personal income, personal spending, and the PCEs all missed expectations.

- 三个疲弱的经济数据发布在今天早上削弱了美元：个人收入，个人支出和PCE都低于预期。

- Signs that the Canadian economy rebounded in January proved prescient, as a beat on the first GDP report of 2019 has helped trigger a spike higher by the Canadian Dollar.

- 1月份加拿大经济出现反弹的迹象证明具有先见之明，因为2019年第一份国内生产总值报告的节拍有助于引发加元飙升。

- USDCADs daily move is already its largest down day since February 22.

- 美元兑加元每日走势已经是自2月22日以来最大的下跌日。

Looking for longer-term forecasts on the US Dollar？ Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

寻找美元的长期预测？ DailyFX交易指南。

With all eyes in the financial world awaiting the latest Brexit news this week – today was the original deadline for the UK leaving the European Union, after all – the economic calendar has been largely pushed to the backburner, and with it, any attention to meaningful developments on the data front.

金融界的所有目光都在等待本周最新的英国脱欧新闻 - 今天是英国离开欧盟的最初截止日期 - 毕竟经济日历在很大程度上被推到了后面，随之而来的是对数据方面有意义的发展的任何关注。

But the round of North American economic data this morning proved to be a double-tap hit on USDCAD, with January Canadian GDP figures beating expectations and all three US data releases missing expectations.

但今天早上的北美经济数据被证明是Ja，美元兑加元双击加拿大的国内生产总值数据超出预期，美国三大数据均未达到预期。

Feds Preferred Measure of Inflation Falls Flat

美联储的首选通胀指标下滑

The Feds preferred gauge of inflation is the Personal Consumption Expenditure measure, or PCE, more so than the headline CPI release each month (similarly, they prefer PCE Core to Core CPI). To this end, the recent dovish shift at the March Fed meeting appears to be vindicated as the latest round of price data shows that PCE Core readings were heading lower. At only 1.8% y/y in January, this is the lowest reading since February 2018.

美联储首选的通胀指标是个人消费支出指标（PCE），而不是每个月的CPI发布量（同样，他们更喜欢PCE核心与核心CPI）。为此，最近一轮价格数据显示PCE核心指数走低，最近3月美联储会议的温和转变似乎得到了证实。 1月份同比仅为1.8％，这是自2018年2月以来的最低值。

US Consumers Health Takes a Hit

美国消费者健康受到打击

With concerns starting to emerge that the US economy is heading towards a recession – not just because key aspects of the US Treasury yield curve inverted, but there are concerns that the US government shutdown weighed considerably on Q119 US GDP – data released today wont help soothe fears. February US Personal Income came in below expectations at 0.2% m/m, as did January US Personal Spending at 0.1% m/m, and so too did January US Real Personal Spending at 0.1% m/m.

随着人们越来越担心美国经济正在走向衰退 - 这不仅仅是因为美国国债收益率曲线的关键方面已经倒转，而且还有人担心美国政府在19年第19季度美国国内生产总值（GDP）数据中大幅下挫 - 数据今天发布的不会帮助缓解恐惧。 2月美国个人收入低于预期，环比下跌0.2％，美国1月份也是如此nal支出环比增长0.1％，1月份美国个人消费支出环比增长0.1％。

The Atlanta Fed‘s GDPNow growth tracker, which had rebounded to 1.5% annualized at its most recent update from as low as 0.2% in early-March, is likely to see a dip lower again following today’s US economic data.

亚特兰大联储的GDPNow增长追踪，已经反弹根据今天的美国经济数据，在最近的更新中，从3月初的低至0.2％到年初1.5％，可能会再次下降。

Canadian Economy Grew Faster Than Expected in January

加拿大经济增长比1月份的预期更快

As disappointing as the US economic data releases were for the US Dollar, the opposite can be said about the January Canadian GDP report and its impact on the Loonie. At 0.3% m/m and 1.6% y/y, both measures beat expectations. Ahead of the release, expectations were biased to the upside given that Crude Oil prices rebounded by 18.5% in January; nearly 11% of the Canadian economy is tied to oil.To this end, during January, the Citi Economic Surprise Index for Canada gained from 11.1 to 43.7.

由于美国经济数据公布对美元的影响令人失望，因此1月加拿大GDP报告及其对Loonie的影响可能与此相反。这两项指标均为0.3％m / m和1.6％y / y，超出预期。由于1月份原油价格反弹18.5％，因此在发布之前，预期偏向上行;近11％的加拿大经济与石油有关。为此，1月份，加拿大花旗经济惊喜指数从11.1升至43.7。

Data Summary

数据摘要

Here are the US economic data weighing on the US Dollar this morning:

以下是美元今早对美元构成的经济数据：

- USD Personal Income (FEB): 0.2% versus 0.3% expected, from -0.1% (m/m).

- 美元个人收入（FEB）：0.2％对0.3％预计，从-0.1％（月/日）。

- USD Personal Spending (JAN): 0.1% versus 0.3% expected, from -0.6% (revised lower from -0.5%) (m/m).

- 美元个人消费（JAN）：0.1％对0.3％预期，从-0.6％（从-0.5修正下调） ％）（m / m）。

- USD Real Personal Spending (JAN): 0.1% versus 0.3% expected, from -0.6% (m/m).

- 美元个人消费（JAN）：0.1％对0.3％预期，从-0.6％（月/日）。

- USD PCE Core (JAN): 0.1% versus 0.2% expected, from 0.2% (m/m).

- 美元PCE核心（JAN）：0.1％对0.2％预期，从0.2％（月比）。

- USD PCE Core (JAN): 1.8% versus 1.9% expected, from 2.0% (revised higher from 1.9%) (y/y).

- 美元PCE核心（JAN）：1.8％对1.9％预期，从2.0％（修正后从1.9％上升）（同比）。

Here are the Canadian growth data boosting the Canadian Dollar this morning:

以下是加拿大增长数据推动加拿大美元今天上午：

- CAD Gross Domestic Product (JAN): 0.3% versus 0.1% expected, from -0.1% (m/m).

- 加元国内生产总值（JAN）：0.3％对0.1％预期，从-0.1％（月比）。

- CAD Gross Domestic Product (JAN): 1.6% versus 1.3% expected, from 1.1% (y/y).

- 加元国内生产总值（JAN）：1.6％对1.3％预期，从1.1％（y / y）开始。

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Friday, March 29, 2019.

请参阅2019年3月29日星期五的DailyFX经济日历。

USDCAD Price Chart: 5-minute Timeframe (Intraday March 28 to 29, 2019) (Chart 1)

USDCAD价格走势图：5分钟时间框架（2019年3月28日至29日）（图1）

Following the mix of stronger Canadian and weaker US economic data, USDCAD immediately dropped from just below 1.3320 to as low as 1.3344 in the ensuing minutes.

随着加拿大和美国经济数据走强，美元兑加元立即下跌在接下来的几分钟内，从低于1.3320低至1.3344。

The price reversal came on the heels of not only Fed funds continuing to pull forward expectations of a September rate cut (58% yesterday versus 60% today), but odds of a rate cut over the summer by the Bank of Canada have eased as well, having come into today at a 48% chance of a September cut, to where they stand after the data, at 31%.

价格逆转之前，不仅联邦基金继续推动9月降息的预期（昨天为58％，而今天为60％），但加拿大央行今年夏季降息的可能性也有所缓解，今天以9％的降幅发生了48％的可能性，他们站在数据后的位置， 31％。

FX TRADING RESOURCES

外汇交易资源

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

无论您是新手还是经验丰富的交易员，DailyFX都有多种资源可以帮助您：监控交易者情绪的指标;季度交易预测;每日举行的分析和教育网络研讨会;帮助您提高交易业绩的交易指南，甚至是那些不熟悉外汇交易的人。

{