GBP/USD Rate Threatens Bull Trend Ahead of Brexit Deadline

British Pound Rate Talking Points

The British Pound remains battered after days of strenuous negotiations as Prime Minister Theresa May fails to secure a Brexit deal, and the GBP/USD exchange rate may exhibit a more bearish behavior over the coming days as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) threaten the upwards trends from late last year.

由于总理特里萨梅未能达成英国脱欧协议，经过几天艰苦谈判后，英镑仍受到重创由于价格和相对强弱指数（RSI）从去年年底开始威胁上行趋势，英镑/美元汇率可能在未来几天表现出更为看跌的行为。

Looking for a technical perspective on the GBP？ Check out the Weekly GBP Technical Forecast.

寻找对英镑的技术观点？查看每周英镑技术预测。

Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Bearish

英镑的基本预测：看跌

The Brexit saga continues as the third defeat for Prime Minister May forces Parliament to lodge alternative options ahead of the April 12 deadline, with the region facing a growing risk of leaving the European Union (EU) without a deal as U.K. lawmakers struggle to meet on common ground.

英国脱欧公司继续作为总理梅的第三次失败，迫使议会在4月12日截止日期之前提出替代方案，该地区面临越来越大的风险，因为英国立法者正在努力争取欧盟（EU）英国央行（BoE）警告称，“经济前景将会如此”，英镑将面临英国退欧脱欧的利空命运。

The British Pound is like to face a bearish fate from a no-deal Brexit as the Bank of England (BoE) warns that ‘the economic outlook will continue to depend significantly on the nature and timing of EU withdrawal,’ but it remains to be seen if an extension will be requested as European Council President Donald Tusk plans to hold an emergency meeting on April 10. With that said, headlines surrounding Brexit may continue to influence the British Pound as the economic docket for the U.K. remains fairly light throughout the first full-week of April, but the recent pickup in British Pound volatility appears to be shaking up market participation amid a shift in retail interest.

The IG Client Sentiment Report shows 65.8% of traders are net-long GBP/USD, with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.92 to 1. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since March 11 when GBP/USD traded back above the 1.3100 handle. The number of traders net-long is 26.5% higher than yesterday and 17.1% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 28.0% lower than yesterday and 20.9% lower from last week.

IG客户情绪报告显示，65.8％的交易者是净多头英镑/美元，交易者的多头比例为1.92比1。交易商净多头的百分比现在是自3月11日英镑/美元回升至1.3100上方以来的最高点。交易商净多头比昨天增加26.5％，比上周增加17.1％，而交易商净空头数比昨天减少28.0％，比上周减少20.9％。

The sharp decline in net-short exposure is likely a result of profit-taking behavior as GBP/USD trades to a fresh weekly-low (1.2977) on Friday, and it seems as though the retail crowd is attempting to trade the range-bound price action carried over from late-February amid the jump in net-long interest. However, a further shift in retail interest may warn of a broader change in GBP/USD behavior, with recent developments raising the risk for a further decline in the exchange rate as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) snap the bullish trends from earlier this year.

由于英镑/美元周五交易于新的每周低点（1.2977），净空头风险大幅下挫可能是获利了结行为的结果，似乎零售人群正在尝试在净多头利息大幅增加的情况下，交易从2月底开始的区间价格行动。然而，零售利率的进一步转变可能会警告英镑/美元行为的更广泛变化，近期的发展提高了汇率进一步下跌的风险，因为价格和相对强弱指数（RSI）突破了看涨趋势今年早些时候。

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

注册并加入DailyFX货币分析师David Song LIVE，有机会讨论潜在的交易设置。

GBP/USD Rate Daily Chart

GBP / USD Rate Daily Chart

The broader outlook for GBP/USD is no longer bullish as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) threaten the upwards trends from late last year, and the advance from the 2019-low (1.2373) may continue to unravel following the string of failed attempts to close above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.3310 (100% expansion) to 1.3370 (78.6% expansion).

由于价格和相对强弱指数（RSI）均受到上涨趋势的影响，英镑/美元的前景不再看涨在去年晚些时候，在一系列未能成功收盘斐波那契重叠1.3310（100％扩张）至1.3370（78.6％扩张）之后，2019-低点（1.2373）的上涨可能会继续解开。 / p>

Recent series of lower highs & lows raises the risk for a further depreciation in GBP/USD, but need a break/close below the 1.2950 (23.6% retracement) to 1.3000 (61.8% retracement) area to open up the next downside hurdle around 1.2880 (50% retracement) to 1.2890 (23.6% expansion).

近期一系列较低的高点和低点会增加英镑/美元进一步贬值的风险，但需要突破/收盘跌破1.2950（23.6％的回撤位）至1.3000（61.8％）区域开盘下行阻力位1.2880（50％回撤位）至1.2890（扩大23.6％）。

The 1.2760 (38.2% retracement) to 1.2800 (50% expansion) zone comes up next followed by the overlap around 1.2610 (23.6% retracement) to 1.2640 (38.2% expansion).

1.2760（38.2％回撤位）至1.2800（50％）接下来是重叠区域1.2610（23.6％回撤位）至1.2640（38.2％扩张）。

Additional Trading Resources

其他交易资源

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 2Q 2019 Forecast for GBP/USD

如需更深入的分析，查看2019年第二季度英镑/美元预测

Are you looking to improve your trading approach？ Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

您是否希望改善交易方式？查看“成功交易者的特征”系列，了解如何有效利用杠杆率任何交易者都可以遵循的其他最佳做法。

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Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching？ Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

---由货币分析师David Song撰写

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