Gold Price Outlook Bearish as USD May Rise on Soft Econ Data, RBA

Gold Price Fundamental Forecast: Bearish

黄金价格基本预测：看跌

• Gold prices inverse link to the US Dollar has strengthened recently

  黄金价格反向链接最近美元走强

• US econ. data may underperform, fueling risk aversion as gold sinks

  美国经济。随着黄金下跌，数据可能表现不佳，助长避险情绪

• Hazards for the yellow metal also include more dovish RBA, Brexit

  黄金的危害还包括更温和的RBA，Brexit

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Looking for a technical perspective on the Gold？ Check out the Weekly Gold Technical Forecast.

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交易所有主要全球经济数据在DailyFX网络研讨会上进行实时和互动。我很高兴能帮助你。

Gold prices spent most of last week declining, with the commodity dropping almost 1.5 percent in its worst single-day performance since the beginning of March on Thursday. The anti-fiat precious metal, thanks to a lack of interest-bearing qualities, inversely tracked the US Dollar. At one point, it even weakened alongside a pullback in the S&P 500. This undermined its often-associated trait as a safe haven.

上周大部分时间黄金价格下跌，商品价格自周三3月初以来的单日最差表现下跌近1.5％ 。由于缺乏有利的品质，反菲尼特贵金属反向跟踪美元。在某一时刻，它甚至在标准普尔500指数的回落中走弱。这破坏了它作为避风港的常常相关特征。

Lately, XAU/USD has been tending to be more sensitive to movements in the Greenback. Looking at the chart below, the yellow metal fell despite a deterioration in front-end government bond yields from developed countries such as the United States and Germany. Simultaneously, its correlation with DXY has been becoming increasingly inverse since the end of February.

最近，XAU / USD一直倾向于对美元的运动更敏感。尽管美国和德国等发达国家的前端政府债券收益率下降，但从下图看，黄金下跌。同时，自2月底以来，它与DXY的相关性变得越来越明显。

Gold Versus Developed Nation 2-Year Government Bond Yields and US Dollar

黄金与发达国家2年期国债收益率和美元

Chart Created in TradingView

在TradingView中创建的图表

Gold Week Ahead

未来的黄金周

With that in mind, gold prices will be closely watching what could impact the US Dollar in the week ahead, and there is much to anticipate. Ahead, data such as US retail sales, durable goods and the latest non-farm payrolls report are on the docket. The Federal Reserve is currently in wait-and-see mode as it cooled expectations of two hikes for this year. Can those odds be revived？

考虑到这一点，黄金价格将密切关注未来一周可能对美元造成的影响，并且有m我期待。此前，美国零售销售，耐用品和最新的非农就业报告等数据都在备案中。美联储目前处于观望状态，因为它降低了对今年两次加息的预期。这些可能性是否会复活？

The Citi surprise index seems to suggest otherwise. Data has been tending to increasingly underperform in the worlds-largest economy, hinting that more downside surprises could be in store ahead. This was largely the case this past week. It should be noted that Fed funds futures are pricing in about a 70% chance of a hike for this year. Yet, the US Dollar has held up remarkably well all things considered.

花旗意外指数似乎暗示其他情况。数据在全球最大经济体中的表现趋势越来越差，暗示未来可能出现更多下行意外。这在过去一周基本上就是这种情况。值得注意的是，联邦基金期货定价今年加息的可能性约为70％。然而，美元在所有考虑因素方面都表现得非常好。

If US equities suffer on fears of economic growth slowing on dismal domestic economic statistics, the Greenback may receive a lift. Aggressive risk aversion often diverts investors into the worlds most liquid asset. Another source of uncertainty could come from the RBA given that the RBNZ recently announced that it favors a cut as its next move. If the former follows suit, USD could rally, pressuring the metal.

如果由于担心国内经济数据令人沮丧而导致经济增长放缓而导致美国股市受损，美元可能会受到提振。激进的风险规避往往会将投资者转移到全球最具流动性的资产中。另一个不确定因素可能来自澳大利亚央行，因为新西兰联储最近宣布它有利于减产作为下一步行动。如果前者跟风，美元可能反弹，给金属施加压力。

Gold may move inversely to USD, but the direction of government bond yields should still be taken into account. Let‘s not forget that gold’s rise since the latter half of 2018 tracked a flattening in a closely-watched section of the US yield curve before it eventually inverted on March 22. Brexit also remains a wildcard for sentiment. Given these numerous risks, gold bulls ought to proceed with caution.

黄金可能与美元成反比，但政府债券收益率的方向仍应考虑在内。让我们不要忘记，自从2018年下半年以来黄金价格的上涨跟随美国收益率曲线中受到密切关注的部分在3月22日最终反转之前趋于平缓。英国退欧仍然是情绪的外卡。考虑到这些众多风险，黄金多头应该谨慎行事。

Gold Trading Resources:

黄金交易资源：

• See our free guide to learn what are the long-term forces driving gold prices

  请参阅我们的免费指南，了解推动黄金价格的长期动力

• Just getting started？ See our beginners guide for FX traders

  刚开始？请参阅我们的外汇交易员初学者指南

• Having trouble with your strategy？ Heres the #1 mistake that traders make

  您的策略出现问题？这是交易员犯下的第一个错误

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

---由DailyFX.com的初级货币分析师Daniel Dubrovsky撰写

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

其他每周基本预测：

Crude Oil Forecast – Crude Oil May be Overextended, But Watch Out For Trade Headlines

原油预测 - 原油可能过度扩张，但需要注意交易头条新闻

British Pound Forecast – GBP/USD Rate Threatens Bull Trend Ahead of Brexit Deadline

英镑预测 - 英镑兑美元汇率在英国脱欧截止日期前威胁牛市趋势

US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar May Rise as Sentiment Succumbs to Potent Headwinds

美元预测 - 美元可能上涨因为情绪屈服于强大的逆风