Euro Weekly Forecast: New Month, Quarter Bring EZ Inflation, Brexit Latest, US NFPs

Fundamental Forecast for the Euro: Neutral

欧元基本面预测：中性

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- Euro rates continues to be negatively impacted by the latest Brexit negotiations

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- The ‘Easter Effect’ may be present in the forthcoming Eurozone inflation report, given the calendar discrepancy over the past year (Easter was on April 1, 2018; will be on April 21, 2019).

- 考虑到过去一年的日历差异（复活节是2018年4月1日;将于2019年4月21日），即将出现的欧元区通胀报告中可能出现“复活节效应”。 / p>

- The IG Client Sentiment Indexshows that retail traders are buying EURUSD dips – a contrarian signal that more losses may be yet to come.

- IG客户情绪指数显示零售交易商正在买入欧元兑美元逢低 - 这是一种逆势信号，表明可能还会出现更多亏损。

See our long-term forecasts for the Euro and other major currencies with the DailyFX Trading Guides.

通过DailyFX交易指南查看我们对欧元和其他主要货币的长期预测。

Euro Rates Week in Review

欧元利率周回顾

The latest Brexit news are weighing on all the European currencies, not just the British Pound, and that negative sentiment was certainly reflected in Euro rates over the past week. For EURGBP (+0.58%), the missed original March 29 Brexit deadline has boosted speculation that UK Prime Minister Theresa May could be at the end of her time in office; both EURCHF (-0.59%) and EURUSD (-0.75%) reacted in line with what ‘safe havens’ would be expected to do when uncertainty rises.

英国退欧最新消息对所有欧洲货币构成压力，而不仅仅是英镑，而负面情绪肯定是反映上周以欧元汇率计算。对于欧元兑英镑（+ 0.58％）而言，3月29日英国脱欧公布的最后期限错过了英国首相特丽莎梅可能在任期结束时的猜测;欧元兑瑞郎（-0.59％）和欧元兑美元（-0.75％）的反应与不确定性上升时“安全避风港”的预期一致。

Elsewhere, there was little strength the Euro could muster on its own, for every other EUR-cross could be explained by exogenous factors: for EURCAD, it was the better than expected January Canadian GDP report; for EURNZD (+0.35%), it was a further repricing of RBNZ rate expectations following the March meeting; and for EURJPY (+0.11%), it was global equity markets running higher.

其他地方，几乎没有欧元可以自行调整，对于其他每一个欧元交叉都可以通过外部因素来解释：对于欧元兑加元，加拿大1月GDP报告好于预期;对于EURNZD（+ 0.35％），在3月会议之后，它进一步重新评估了新西兰联储的利率预期;而对于欧元兑日元（+ 0.11％），全球股市走高。

March EZ Inflation Due Monday; Inflation Expectations Have Decoupled from Energy Prices

3月EZ通货膨胀因周一而来;通货膨胀预期与能源价格脱钩

The Eurozone economic calendar for the coming week is once ‘barbell’ shaped: heavy on the front and back ends, thin in the middle. Traders will want to pay attention to data due out on Monday and Thursday, with little practical need to pay attention to any other European data release in between.

欧元区未来一周的经济日历曾经是“杠铃”形状：前端和后端都很重，中间很薄。交易者希望关注周一和周四到期的数据实际需要注意中间任何其他欧洲数据的释放。

The preliminary March Eurozone Consumer Price Index on Monday may be impacted by the ‘Easter Effect’ due to the timing of the holiday this year (April 21) relative to last (April 1). Otherwise, the bump in Brent Oil prices over the past month (+5.1%) should filter through and help prove supportive to price pressures. The Bloomberg News forecast calls for headline CPI to come in at 1.5% and core CPI in at 1%; given the context, misses would be extremely disappointing.

周一的3月份欧元区初步消费者物价指数可能会受到“复活节效应”的影响今年（4月21日）的假期相对于去年（4月1日）。否则，过去一个月布伦特原油价格的上涨（+ 5.1％）应该过滤并帮助证明对价格压力的支持。彭博社的预测称，整体消费者物价指数为1.5％，核心消费物价指数为1％;鉴于上下文，未命中将非常令人失望。

Stability in energy prices have seemingly done little to filter through into inflation expectations (Brent Oil prices up by +5.1% over the past four-weeks), a strong indication that growth concerns are driving the turn lower. ECB President Mario Draghis preferred measure of inflation, the 5-year, 5-year inflation swap forwards, closed last week at 1.351%, sharply lower from where it was one month earlier at 1.499% (-14.8-bps).

能源价格稳定似乎没有过滤到通胀预期（布伦特原油价格上涨+5.1）过去四周的百分比表明增长担忧推动转向走低。欧洲央行行长Mario Draghis首选通胀指标，即5年期5年期通胀掉期期货，上周收于1.351％，大幅低于一个月前的1.499％（-14.8-bps）。

March ECB Meeting Minutes on Thursday

3月欧洲央行会议纪要

The March ECB meeting minutes on Thursday will draw interest this week considering the Governing Council‘s decision to announce its third TLTRO program starting this September and push back its forward guidance to indicate that rates would stay on hold through at least the end of 2019. Likewise, we’ll get some insight into how much more the central bank is willing to do at a time when fiscal policymakers are hamstrung by seemingly endless domestic woes.

考虑到理事会决定宣布，本周四欧洲央行会议纪要将于本周吸引利息它是今年9月开始的第三个TLTRO计划，并推迟其前瞻指引，表明利率将至少在2019年底保持不变。同样，我们将了解央行愿意做多少钱。财政政策制定者受到看似无穷无尽的国内困境的困扰。

Economic Data Momentum Continues to Improve

经济数据势头持续改善

An objective look at European economic data shows that conditions have stabilized, relatively speaking, over the past few weeks. In recent days weve seen the March German IFO surveys and February German Retail Sales beat expectations, while Eurozone economic, industrial, and services confidence all dropped in March. As a result, heading into the coming week, the Citi Economic Surprise Index for the Eurozone has moved up to -61 from -61.6 one week earlier; for comparison, three months earlier, the index was at -73.3.

客观地看待欧洲经济数据显示，过去几周相对而言，情况已趋于稳定。最近几天我们看到3月德国IFO调查和2月德国零售销售超过预期，而欧元3月份，经济，工业和服务业的信心均下降。因此，进入下周，欧元区花旗经济意外指数从一周前的-61.6升至-61;相比之下，三个月前，该指数为-73.3。

EURGBP to Stay at Center of Attention

EURGBP留在关注中心

Over the course of the week, the Brexit negotiations in UK parliament will hold considerable sway over EURGBP, and as a result, still on the broader EUR-complex. Our heuristic still holds that good Brexit news means EURGBP likely depreciates; when GBP leads EUR, other EUR-crosses have tended to outperform. And vice-versa: bad Brexit news means EURGBP likely appreciates; when EUR leads GBP, other EUR-crosses have tended to underperform.

整个课程本周，英国议会的脱欧谈判将对欧元兑英镑产生相当大的影响，因此，仍将在更广泛的欧元区内进行。我们的启发式认为，英国退欧的好消息意味着欧元兑英镑可能会贬值;当英镑领涨欧元时，其他欧元区交叉盘趋于跑赢大盘。反之亦然：糟糕的英国退欧新闻意味着欧元兑英镑可能升值;当欧元领涨英镑时，其他欧元区交叉盘往往表现不佳。

UK PM May could try and push her EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement through UK parliament for a fourth time, and if she succeeds, then a May 22 deadline would emerge for Brexit. If not, the April 12 deadline remains (“the new March 29”). Its possible she calls for a General Election as no path forward emerges. But to be clear: the European Union will not be the entity to push the UK out the door; they will keep offering extensions and even allow the UK to participate in European parliamentary elections.

英国首相可能会尝试通过英国议会第四次推动其欧盟 - 英国退出协议，如果她成功了，然后5月22日英国退欧的最后期限将会出现。如果没有，4月12日的截止日期仍然存在（“新的3月29日”）。她可能要求大选，因为没有前进的道路。但需要明确的是：欧盟不会成为推动英国走出困境的实体;他们将继续提供延期，甚至允许英国参加欧洲议会选举。

March RBA Meeting on Tuesday, March US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday

3月星期二，3月美国非农就业人数的澳大利亚央行会议

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The first week of a new month and a new quarter typically brings the usual smattering of important economic data releases and events, and the first week of April and Q219 is no different. Whereas the important Eurozone data is due out on Monday and Thursday, the top events from elsewhere in the FX world come on Tuesday and Friday, in the forms of the March Reserve Bank of Australia meeting and the March US Nonfarm Payrolls report, respectively.

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For EURAUD, odds are low that the RBA takes any action at all, with only a 7% chance of a 25-bps rate cut this week. But traders should be on the watch for any significant shift in tone, in line with the dovish shift seen by the RBNZ last week. Rate cut odds are building for later this year, with overnight index swaps now pricing in a 54% chance of a cut at the July meeting.

对于EURAUD，RBA采取任何行动的可能性很低，本周降息25个基点的可能性仅为7％。但是，交易员应该关注任何重大的基调变化上周在新西兰联盟看到了温和的转变。今年晚些时候降息的可能性正在增加，隔夜指数掉期现在定价为7月会议削减54％的可能性。

For EURUSD, the March US labor report represents another opportunity for the US economy to prove that early Q1‘19 economic malaise has been overcome. After all, right around the time we got the putrid February US Nonfarm Payrolls report that showed that the economy only added 75K jobs, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth tracker for Q1’19 was near a mere 0.2%. Yet now, with the headline March US jobs report due to show gains of +180K and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth tracker up at 1.7%, traders may be less inclined to be so aggressively dovish on the Fed this year (Fed funds pricing in a 25-bps rate cut at the September 2019 meeting).

对于欧元兑美元，3月美国劳工报告这为美国经济提供了另一个证明1919年初的经济萎靡不振的机会。毕竟，在我们得到2月美国非农就业人数报告显示经济只增加75,000个工作岗位的时候，亚特兰大联邦储备银行2009年第一季度的GDP增长追踪仅接近0.2％。然而现在，随着3月份美国就业报告显示增长+ 180K和亚特兰大联储GDPNow增长追踪指数上涨1.7％，交易商可能不太倾向于今年如此积极地对美联储保持温和态度（联邦基金定价为在2019年9月的会议上降息25个基点）。

Shorts Build in Futures Market, Dragging Euro Rates Lower

短期在期货市场建立，拖累欧元汇率走低

Finally, looking at positioning, according to the CFTC‘s COT for the week ended March 26, speculators increased their net-short Euro positions to 80.3K contracts, down from the 77.7K net-short contracts held in the week prior. The largest net-short position since December 13, 2016. It’s not difficult to envision the significant short position in the futures market playing a role in any major price developments around the latest Brexit news.

最后，根据CFTC截至3月26日当周的COT，投机者将其净空头欧元头寸增加至80.3万合约，低于前一周持有的77.7万净空头合约。 。自2016年12月13日以来最大的净空头头寸。预计期货市场中的重要空头头寸在围绕最新英国退欧新闻的任何重大价格发展中发挥作用并不困难。

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外汇交易资源

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无论您是新手还是经验丰富的交易员，DailyFX都有多种资源可以帮助您：监控交易者情绪的指标;季度交易预测;每日举办的分析和教育网络研讨会;交易指南，以帮助您提高交易表现，甚至是那些不熟悉外汇交易的人。

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

---由高级货币策略师CFA Christopher Vecchio撰写