Solar stocks fall as Trump bill taxes components from China, phases out credits

• The Senate is voting on a version of President Donald Trump's spending legislation that would slam the solar and wind industries.
• The legislation is close to a worst case scenario for renewable energy, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco told clients.
• However, there are also a few companies that Wall Street views as relative winners.

Clean energy stocks fell on Monday as President Donald Trump's spending legislation now includes a tax on wind and solar projects using Chinese components and phases out credits faster than previous versions of the bill.

Shares of NextEra Energy, the largest renewable developer in the U.S., fell 4%. Solar stocks Array Technologies, Enphase and Nextracker were down between 4% and 9%.

The Senate is voting Monday on the legislation, which ends the two most important tax credits for solar and wind projects placed in service after 2027.

“The latest Senate draft bill will destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country,” Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted on X over the weekend. “Utterly insane and destructive. It gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future.”

Previous versions of the bill were more flexible, allowing projects that began construction before 2027 to qualify for the investment and electricity production tax credits, according to Monday note from Goldman Sachs.

Compressed timelines

The change “compresses project timelines and adds significant execution risk,” Bank of America analyst Dimple Gosal told clients in a note Monday. “Developers with large '25 pipelines, may struggle to meet the new deadlines — potentially delaying or downsizing planned investments.”

The Senate legislation also slaps a tax on solar and wind projects that enter service after 2027 if they use components made in China.

“The latest draft in the Senate has become more restrictive for most renewable players, moving toward a worst case outcome for solar and wind, with a few improvements for subsectors on the margin,” Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco told clients in a Sunday note.

To be sure, the rooftop solar industry is viewed by Wall Street as a relative winner from the bill, with Sunrun shares up more than 7% and SolarEdge trading more than 3% higher on Monday. The legislation seems to allows tax credits for leased rooftop systems to remain in place through the end of 2027, which was not the case in previous versions, according to Goldman Sachs.

And First Solar is up more than 7% as the legislation seems to allow the manufacturer to claim credits for both components and final products, according to Bank of America.