United Airlines issues new 2025 forecast as CEO says world is less uncertain'

• United now expects to earn between $9 and $11 a share this year, down from a forecast earlier this year of between $11.50 and $13.50 a share.
• The airline's third-quarter forecast was within the range of analysts' expectations.
• United said it expects constraints at its Newark Liberty International Airport hub to continue to hit its pretax margins.

United Airlines' second-quarter earnings beat estimates and its CEO said travel demand is picking up after a rocky start to 2025.

Travel demand, particularly from more price-sensitive customers for domestic flights, had come in weaker than airline executives expected at the start the year, sending airfares lower.

“The world is less uncertain today than it was during the first six months of 2025 and that gives us confidence about a strong finish to the year,” CEO Scott Kirby said.

Rival Delta Air Lines last week reinstated its full-year forecast, which was lower than it expected at the start of the year. Airlines like Delta and others have said they plan to cut capacity after the peak summer travel season, which ends around mid-August.

Here is what United Airlines reported for the quarter that ended June 30 compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on estimates compiled by LSEG:

• Earnings per share:$3.87 cents adjusted vs. $3.81 expected
• Revenue:$15.24 billion vs. $15.35 billion expected

United's second-quarter revenue rose 1.7% from a year earlier to $15.24 billion, below the $15.35 billion analysts expected. Net income dropped 26% to $973 million, or $2.97 a share. Adjusting for one-time items, United reported $1.27 billion, or $3.87 a share.

Unit revenue dropped 4% in the quarter. The decline was most pronounced in domestic passenger revenue per seat mile, which fell 7% year-over-year. International revenue has been a bright spot for airlines, but there was some evidence of weaker pricing power, with United's Europe unit revenues down 2.2% on the year.

United expects to post adjusted earnings of between $9 and $11 per share in 2025 compared with the $10 a share analysts had expected. Amid economic uncertainty this spring, United in April had taken the the unusual step of issuing two earnings scenarios— $11.50 to $13.50 a share in a stable environment and $7 and $9 a share in a “recessionary environment.”

For the third quarter, United expected adjusted earnings of $2.25 and $2.75 a share, within analysts' expectations.

The carrier said operational constraints at Newark Liberty International Airport, a major United hub, this year hit its second-quarter pretax margin by 1.2 points and forecast a third-quarter impact of 0.9.

The Federal Aviation Administration in May cut flights at Newark because of air traffic controller staffing shortages and other issues.

American Airlines and Southwest Airlines are scheduled to report results next week.

• Airport lounges, Europe and premium class are on the table, Southwest CEO says
• Trump wants to bring manufacturing jobs back. The aviation industry cant hire fast enough
• Why its getting even harder to get into airport lounges
• Recession in Row 33: Plane tickets are getting cheaper as domestic travel demand weakens